Since 2016, repeated cycles of reduced rainfalls and persisting political instability have led to a significant deterioration in terms of food security and to increasing numbers of internal and cross border displacement. Seasonal drought in the greater horn of africa and its recent. There are many causes of drought in africa, there is need to know the causes in order. The south african weather service defines a drought as a period of 12 moths when. There are very few countries in the region that are untouched by this phenomenon. Is climate change to blame for the east african drought. However, a comprehensive analysis of droughts, including. Vogt 1 executive summary of part i western cape province in south africa is going through a severe drought. In some countries such as somalia, kenya and ethiopia, drought has been one of the main reasons for socioeconomic instabilities oloughlin et al.
Drought in east africa the result of climate change and. Extensive growing season failures and record low vegetation are observed across somalia and southeast ethiopia and coastal kenya. Prolonged drought in the horn of africa is the immediate cause of the severe food crisis already affecting around 10 million people in parts of kenya, ethiopia, djibouti and somalia. East africa ea has been the primary focus for various drought studies in recent years. Drought and food crisis in the horn of africa the horn of africa is facing what has been described as the worst drought in over half a century. Between july 2011 and mid2012, a severe drought affected the entire east african region. Droughts in east africa becoming more frequent, more. Wfp 2016, specifically covering the period october 2015 to january 2016 wfp 2016, it followed the third driest season in the. We are now in the third year of very low rainfall coupled with high temperatures, which have exhausted peoples ability to cope with drier conditions and scarce and unpredictable rains. Drought and its associated impacts have been causing critical problems for agriculture, vulnerable communities and overall development for many years in south africa. This page contains archived content and is no longer being updated. A scenario of a third drought affected season in a row should be considered, potentially leading to a situation similar to the 20102011 humanitarian crisis. They push away the moist air that normally brings rain to east africa from october to december. The drought in east africa is reportedly the regions worst in six decades, and it threatens the lives of millions of people with food shortages.
Droughts, however defined, are frequent and severe in many african countries as a result of the extreme rainfall variability in the extensive arid and semiarid areas and the poor capacity of most african soils to retain moisture. Drought is africas principal type of natural disaster. The impact of drought on africa 1 introduction water shortages are a major threat globally but their impact is more severe in africa in general and in subsaharan africa in particular. However, a comprehensive analysis of droughts, including their evolution, complexity, social implications.
Mar 17, 2017 farmers, traders and consumers across east and southern africa are feeling the impact of consecutive seasons of drought that have scorched harvests and ruined livelihoods. Families in somalia fled drought and the ongoing conflict, seeking refuge in neighbouring countries. Jul 04, 2011 prolonged drought in the horn of africa is the immediate cause of the severe food crisis already affecting around 10 million people in parts of kenya, ethiopia, djibouti and somalia. Cnna severe drought threatens millions of people in east africa. East africas drought conditions more accurately than the original spi. This study seeks to characterize the productivity response of tropical east africa to water stress while identifying the unique spatial and temporal characteristics of the 20102011 drought. The united nations has declared a famine in parts of somalia, as the worst drought for 60 years forces thousands of people to flee their homes and cross the countrys borders in search of aid. The promise dried up, however, when the rains stopped, leaving the latter half of march and the first half of april dry. For example, the years 1985, 2003 and 2010 are recorded as major drought years in specific parts of ea fig. However, a comprehensive analysis of droughts, including their evolution. Climate prediction centers africa hazards outlook may 21 may. Box 1 impact of drought on the manufacturing sector in zimbabwe 28 box 2 model hng the economic impact of the 1992 drought in south africa 32 box 3 impact of drought on the distribution of income 35 box 4 lake kariba and the 199192 drought 37 box 5 modelling the longerterm impact of drought 40 figures.
Six successive years of poor rain have left eastern africa in severe drought. Rainfall was erratic and significantly belowaverage during both. Hence, there is a pressing need for an overview of drought studies in ea. Horn of africa and 20012003 drought in southern and southeastern africa, to. Rains are erratic, many rely on aid and the region is unloved by government. Sheep and goats which have died because of the continuous drought situation in somaliland. Covid19 economic and food security implications in east africa release 1.
At the time of publication, it represented the best available science. Drought is fast becoming a natural phenomenon in parts of east and south africa. Drought 7 august 2006 the federations mission is to improve the lives of vulnerable people by mobilizing the power of humanity. With successive large scale droughts in east africa in 201011, 2014, 2015 and the ongoing drought, its easy to assume climate change caused by human behaviour does indeed play a role.
Rain typically falls between february and june, and 2005 looked promising when rains started to fall in january. Mar 16, 2017 cnna severe drought threatens millions of people in east africa. Seasonal drought in the greater horn of africa and its. Droughts are not new to this region, but they are intensifying. Crop harvests are well below normal and the price of food has doubled across much of ethiopia, kenya, somalia and nearby countries. Illustrating the extent and severity of the 201617 horn of africa drought. Impacts of drought such as the effects on a regions climatology, increases in food insecurity and food prices and the integration of. The impacts of the drought have been exacerbated by high local cereal prices, excess livestock mortality, conflict and restricted humanitarian access in some areas.
Drought characteristics africa and the near east and. Attribution of meteorological drivers28 december 2015 whether climate change played a role in the 2014 east african long rain season in southern ethiopia, northern kenya and southwest somalia centre of the drought impact, that contributed the 2014 drought in east africa. The 20162017 drought across the horn of africa has contributed to failed harvests,extensive. The 2016 season severe drought in the horn of africa the rainfall season in the horn of africa has ended in a severe drought. Jul 26, 2011 the drought in east africa is reportedly the regions worst in six decades, and it threatens the lives of millions of people with food shortages. Multiple crises strain efforts to respond displaced somali boys who fled the drought in southern somalia stand in a queue to receive food handouts at a feeding center in a. Pdf the humanitarian crises caused by the recent droughts 20082009 and 20102011 in east africa have illustrated that the ability to make. Lutheran world relief is currently active in kenya, tanzania.
However, evidence from statistical analysis of east africa rainfall and sea surface temperatures indicates that the next season may be drier than average. The weather phenomenon making drought the new normal cnn. Said to be the worst in 60 years, the drought caused a severe food crisis across somalia, djibouti, ethiopia and kenya that threatened the livelihood of 9. May 16, 2017 uganda has suffered a quite serious drought recently, and so has rwanda. Climaterelated droughts, combined with ongoing conflict, have left more than 12 million people hungry. The impact of drought on subsaharan african economies. Crop harvests are well below normal and the price of food has doubled across much of. Rainfall was erratic and significantly belowaverage during both the octoberdecember 2016 and the marchmay 2017 seasons. It is the third of a series of similar studies carried out in. Vogt 1 executive summary of part i western cape province in south africa is going through a severe drought, affecting in particular the highly populated urban area of cape town and.
The drought and resulting food crisis in east africa. From mid2016 to mid2017, a severe drought occurred across the horn of africa. Nearly thirteen million people in kenya, ethiopia and somalia are dangerously. The famine is the third to hit the region in 25 years. Thus, during ond drought in eastern ethiopia, kenya, and somalia i. East africa is about as far from the central pacific ocean as a person can get without leaving the planet. Using the three indices and east africa as a case example, we identi.
Projected future aridity is presented based on recent studies and our analysis of model simulations. For many in east africa, the current drought is the worst in living memory. Uganda has suffered a quite serious drought recently, and so has rwanda. Pdf forecasting droughts in east africa researchgate. Climate prediction centers africa hazards outlook may 21 may 27, 2020 while rains have eased in parts of the horn of africa, flooding persists along the juba and shabelle rivers. Thousands are fleeing somalia to seek food in kenya and ethiopia, according to catholic relief services, which is responding to the disaster. The government of kenya has declared the countrys current drought a national emergency. Africa is a good example of great vulnerability to drought and desertification and a seemingly inability to manage these climate based issues. However, a comprehensive analysis of droughts, including their evolution, complexity, social implications and peoples vulnerability is currently lacking. Regional scale droughts across east africa the regions of east africa where a growing season starts from october onwards have been affected by drier than average conditions these have varied in intensity from extreme to relatively mild. There is growing scientific analysis suggesting that climate change aggravates their impacts.
A drought means a long period of dry weather during which the lack of rain results in a severe shortage of water. It is the worlds largest humanitarian organization and its millions of volunteers are active in over 185 countries. Robinson 1, xi yang 2 and jungeun lee 1, 1 department of earth, environmental, and planetary sciences, brown university, providence, ri 02912, usa. Pdf east africa ea has been the primary focus for various drought studies in recent years. A recent southern african development community sadc report suggests that by mid2017 four countries will have to declare national drought. Farmers, traders and consumers across east and southern africa are feeling the impact of consecutive seasons of drought that have scorched harvests and ruined livelihoods. A farmer has taken drone footage of cattle swarming around a water truck in droughthit new south wales. Jul 20, 2011 the united nations has declared a famine in parts of somalia, as the worst drought for 60 years forces thousands of people to flee their homes and cross the countrys borders in search of aid. Climate prediction centers africa hazards outlook may 21. This is a region where the global forces of climate change, forced migration, and volatile food supply converge, resulting in severe hunger and, at worst, famine. The humanitarian crises caused by the recent droughts 20082009 and 20102011 in east africa have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought forecasts with sufficient lead time is. Climate prediction centers africa hazards outlook may 14 may 20, 2020 ongoing heavy rains in east africa continue to cause deadly flash flooding and river flooding in many areas.
Impacts of drought such as the effects on a regions climatology, increases in food insecurity and food prices and the integration of drought with. Climate prediction centers africa hazards outlook may 14. Africa and the near east the report assesses the occurrence and impacts of drought, the current policies underlying drought management as well as the mitigation measures and responses adopted in the near east and north africa region, with a focus on the agriculture sector. Drought 20142020 status ongoing glide dr20140001ken table of contents. A case of the eastern cape and free state provinces of south africa author. So the conclusions cited above ring alarmingly true. It is striking that nowhere across such a vast region has. The south african weather service saws 2016b defines a meteorological drought on the basis of the degree of dryness in comparison to normal or average amounts of rainfall for a particular area or place and the duration of the dry period. The severe drought of 201011 in kenya, somalia, and southeastern ethiopia, for example, affected some ten million people. Jul 11, 2017 with successive large scale droughts in east africa in 201011, 2014, 2015 and the ongoing drought, its easy to assume climate change caused by human behaviour does indeed play a role. Drought is an inescapable feature of the greater horn of africas generally semiarid climate and with roughly 75% of the labor force in the region involved in smallholder, rainfed agriculture salami et al.
Uganda has problems, but it is no somalia life for people in karamoja, uganda, is tough. Many refugees from southern somalia fled to neighboring kenya and ethiopia, where. Around ten million people in burundi, djibouti, eritrea, ethiopia, kenya, rwanda, somalia and uganda are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance. Iom east and horn of africa drought appeal 5 context eastern africa is experiencing one of the worst droughts in decades. In the east african drought history, many drought events have been recorded, especially after the 1980s. However, while drought is not new, it has become increasingly frequent. Drought in africa leaves 45 million in need across 14 countries. East africa has been facing a food crisis on and off since 2011, including most recently in 2017 and 2020. Over the past year, the eastern horn of africa has experienced two consecutive poor rainy seasons, resulting in one of the driest years since 195051 in many pastoral zones. Even if ultimately the drying trend goes into reverse, east africa faces higher temperatures and decades of disruptive climate change. Locusts remain a serious threat in the east and could spread into the sahel over the coming months. Bmi produced results that are highly correlated to those of the modi.
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